Development and validation of a normal tissue complication probability model for acquired nasal cavity stenosis and atresia after radical radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PurposeCurative radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) can lead to acquired nasal cavity stenosis and atresia (ANCSA). As the first study investigate risk factors of ANCSA in a large cohort NPC patients, this article aims develop validate multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model predict development establish nomogram clinical use.Methods materialsThe retrospective was comprised 548 patients treated with radical radiotherapy. The randomly divided into training validation groups. Least absolute shrinkage selection operator regression performed variable from dosimetric characteristics group. A NTCP were established prediction development. Discrimination calibration tested using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves tests, respectively, both groups.ResultsANCSA observed 132 (24.1%) who underwent median time detection after treatment 2.8 months (range, 0.0–57.7 months). Five potential predictors, including choanal invasion, low white blood cell count, high C-reactive protein level, serum amyloid V70Gy cavity, selected based on 365 had fairly good discriminative power according ROC analysis (area under curve = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.73–0.84) (0.73, 0.64–0.82) test (E-max 0.069, E-avg 0.015, p 0.977) 0.057, 0.032, 0.747) groups.ConclusionsWe developed successfully validated an early This could help clinicians assess before initiation follow-ups ensure appropriate timely management complication.